The global refined copper market for June showed an apparent production deficit of around 83,000 mt, mainly due to strong Chinese apparent refined copper demand, the International Copper Study Group said Tuesday.

When making seasonal adjustments for world refined production and usage, June showed a production deficit of about 47,000 mt, the ICSG said in its monthly report.

The refined copper balance for the first half of 2016, including revisions to previous data, indicates a production deficit of around 306,000 mt, and a seasonally adjusted deficit of about 227,000 mt.

That compares with a production deficit of around 54,000 mt (a seasonally adjusted surplus of about 27,000 mt) for the same period of 2015.

For the first half of 2016, world apparent refined usage is estimated to have increased by around 5% (570,000 mt) compared with the same period of 2015, mainly due to strong Chinese apparent demand, the ICSG said.

Factoring in estimated changes in Chinese bonded warehouse stocks, the world refined copper balance indicates a production deficit of around 151,000 mt for the first half compared with a surplus of about 16,000 mt for H1 2015.

“Chinese apparent demand increased by around 11% based on a 20% increase in net imports of refined copper from the lower net import level in early 2015 and consequently lower apparent demand,” ICSG analysts said. Excluding China, world usage remained essentially unchanged.

On a regional basis, refined usage is estimated to have increased by 5% in Europe and 7% in Asia (when excluding China, Asia usage declined by 2%) in H1 2016, while declining by 17% and 4% in Africa and in the Americas, respectively, and remaining essentially unchanged in Oceania.

World mine production is estimated to have increased by around 4.5% (430,000 mt) in the first half of 2016 compared with production in the same period of 2015, the ICSG said.

Concentrate production increased by 6% while solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) declined by 1%.

“The increase in world mine production was mainly due to a 50% rise in Peruvian output that is benefiting from new and expanded capacity brought on stream in the last two years,” ICSG analysts said.

A recovery in production levels in Canada and the US, expanded capacity in Mexico and a ramp-up in production in Mongolia also contributed to world growth.

But overall growth was partially offset by a 5.5% decline in production in Chile, the world?s biggest copper mine producer, and a 10% decline in Democratic Republic of Congo output due to temporary production cuts.

On a regional basis, production rose by 7% in the Americas and 6% in Asia during the first half, but declined by 4% in Africa while remaining essentially unchanged in Europe and Oceania, according to ICSG data.

World refined production is estimated to have increased by about 3% (320,000 mt) in the first half of 2016 compared with refined production in the same period of 2015: primary production was up by 2.5% and secondary production (from scrap) was up by 4.5%.

The main contributor to growth was China (+6%), followed by the US, where production increased by 16%. Output in Chile and Japan, the second and third leading refined copper producers, increased by around 2% and 3% respectively.

Refined production in the DRC and Zambia declined due to the impact of temporary production cuts, the ICSG said.

On a regional basis, refined output is estimated to have increased in the Americas (6%), Asia (5%) and Oceania (18%) in the first half, while declining in Africa (-15%) and in Europe (-4%).

Source: S&P Global Platts

DESPITE most emerging market currencies continuing being under pressure against a strong United States (US) dollar, the Kwacha is expected to hold in the range of K9.60 and K9.70, financial market players have noted.
Cavmont Bank says Wednesday’s trading session witnessed the local unit rally come to a halt as it failed to break below the K9.50 level.

“The local unit has continued to out-perform other emerging market currencies which have recently come under pressure against the greenback following indications from the US Federal Reserve that it may hike interest rates soon,” the bank says in its market report.

On Wednesday, the Kwacha opened trading at K9.50 and K9.55 and was largely unmoved against the dollar, with minimal activity being seen from most corporates.

Similarly, First National Bank (FNB) Zambia, in its daily newsletter, says the Kwacha is expected to continue being firm against the dollar.

FNB says it seems the steam experienced in dollar/Kwacha pair over the last few days has died down.

“We are of the view that the current levels will hold although the tide seems to now have shifted to the upside. We see support at K9.60 and resistance at K9.70 yesterday,” the newsletter reads.

Meanwhile, Zanaco in its daily newsletter says the Kwacha is anticipated to trade in the range of K9.70 and K9.90 in the short-term with a bias towards a weaker local unit.

The bank attributes the depreciation to corporate demand for foreign currency as it begins to pick up, though the downside could be limited by support from inflows from offshore investors after a central bank auction for Treasury bills.

On the regional front, the South African rand traded close to the previous day’s seven-week low against the dollar yesterday, hurt by investor concerns over the future of Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan.

The Rand touched an early session low of 14,7385, but clawed back to 14.6850 by 07: 04 GMT, up slightly from Wednesday’s close at 14.720 while the Kenyan shilling was also stable due to subsiding dollar demand from the manufacturing sector and inflows from charities offering support to trade at 101.25/35 compared with 101.30/40 at Wednesday’s close.

Meanwhile, the Botswana pula and Nigerian naira remained unchanged at 10.7941 and 304.5 respectively yesterday from Wednesday.

Source: Daily Mail

THE price of copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) yesterday marginally appreciated from two-month lows after China’s manufacturing activities increased.

The commodity, which is Zambia’s major foreign exchanger earner, traded at US$4,632 per tonne yesterday from US$4,625.50 on Wednesday.

Reuters reports that activity in China’s manufacturing sector picked up last month, although gains were modest, an official survey showed yesterday.

“London copper shifted away from two-month lows and zinc neared 15-month highs on Thursday after China’s manufacturing activity unexpectedly expanded in August, typically a quiet month for metals demand,” Reuters says.
Three-month copper on the LME had edged up 0.4 percentage point to US$4,632 a tonne by 01:30 GMT, after ending little changed in the previous session.

On Tuesday, the copper price fell to its weakest since June 24, at US$4,600 a tonne amid mounting supply. LME exchange stocks have jumped by 40 percent in the past fortnight.

On oil, the price rose in Asian trade on Thursday as the United States (US) dollar weakened, rebounding from a more than three percent drop in the previous session following surprisingly large builds in US crude and distillate stockpiles last week.

Brent crude climbed 18 cents to US$47.07 a barrel, while US crude oil rose 24 cents to US$44.94 a barrel, after falling US$1.65 in the previous session.

Source: Daily Mail

IN AN effort to boost the real estate sector, Zambia is this month expected to host the ZamReal Property Forum which will focus on issues of development and investment in the local industry.

The forum is scheduled to take place on September 28, 2016 with a focus on the Zambian real estate market.

According to a statement availed to the Daily Mail yesterday, the forum will also focus on local representation to assist international investors in finding local partners.

“ZamReal is a one-day forum in which delegates will discuss key topics concerning property development and investment. ZamReal will attract a variation of delegates including developers, investors, financiers as well as all property stakeholders looking to expand their Zambian real estate business,” the statement reads.

This year’s forum will be held under the theme “Development, private equity and legal construction economics investment finance”.

Some of the speakers expected at the forum are JLL director and head of capital markets Anthony Lewis, First National Bank South Africa commercial property finance specialist Mpangwe Mutwale and Pam Golding Properties Zambia managing director Inutu Zaloumis.

Others are Heriot Properties managing director Steven Herring , Knight Frank Zambia Limited managing director Tim Ware, Afritec Asset Management director Shaun Davy and Thebe Investment Management co-head of real estate Mumamba Mwansa, among others.

Source Daily Mail